Capybara

PEMC VS MONTE CARLO

Capybara

ASIAN OPTION PARAMETERS

SIMULATION CONFIG

PRICING COMPARISON

MC
Monte Carlo
$1.8542
Std Error: ±0.0156
Samples: 10,000
Time: 2.34s
PEMC
Enhanced MC
$1.8567
Std Error: ±0.0089
Samples: 11,000
Time: 1.67s

PERFORMANCE METRICS

σ²
VARIANCE REDUCTION
43.2%
EFFICIENCY GAIN
2.1x
ρ
ML CORRELATION
0.73
$
COST RATIO
0.001

RESEARCH FOUNDATION

Prediction-Enhanced Monte Carlo
Li et al. (2024)
arXiv:2412.11257v3
Variance Reduction: 30-55%
Statistical Rigor
Production Ready
DOWNLOAD PAPER
PEMC Estimator:
PEMC = (1/n)Σ[f(Yi) - g(Xi)] + (1/N)Σ[g(X̃j)]
Where f(Y) are expensive simulations and g(X) are cheap ML predictions